Tennis · resolved market
ITF Astana: Daria Belyaeva vs Rinko Matsuda
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x316bfe2b2d06c3d61124486c0c52f217046eaf302b77952b2c004002144727f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rinko Matsudaof Daria Belyaeva, Rinko Matsuda
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Daria Belyaeva | 25c | 393.79$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.45 | 5,325 | 28.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L | -21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb6…4938backed Rinko Matsuda | 79c | 178.41$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…11b4backed Rinko Matsuda | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 164 | 67.7%111 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…ef05backed Rinko Matsuda | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 372 | 62.9%234 W · 138 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…f092backed Daria Belyaeva | 25c | 96.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Daria Belyaeva | 21c | 77.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdea6…44ebbacked Daria Belyaeva | 26c | 74.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Daria Belyaeva | 21c | 72.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec3…6bd2backed Rinko Matsuda | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 61cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…fa1abacked Rinko Matsuda | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Rinko Matsuda | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 5,498 | 48.5%2,667 W · 2,831 L | +10.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Rinko Matsuda | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 2,776 | 53.7%1,491 W · 1,285 L | +69.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…61babacked Rinko Matsuda | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 39 | 79.5%31 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf9…8292backed Rinko Matsuda | 74c | 26.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 591 | 57.7%341 W · 250 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…6477backed Rinko Matsuda | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe01…b45dbacked Rinko Matsuda | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 223 | 77.6%173 W · 50 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 77cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Rinko Matsuda | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 826 | 59.3%490 W · 336 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Rinko Matsuda | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…ed0dbacked Rinko Matsuda | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 324 | 52.5%170 W · 154 L | -15.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…5e60backed Rinko Matsuda | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.