Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Penn State Nittany Lions (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3194548c40336b1573a2185fdf5b3f188268f8b8508ed005deef6fbc058bb07a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Campbell Fighting Camelsof Penn State Nittany Lions, Campbell Fighting Camels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Campbell Fighting Camels | 51c | 20,000$10,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,800 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 49c | 11,565$5,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,666.69 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 53c | 10,325$5,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,499.86 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 49c | 3,200$1,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,568 | 354 | 52.3%185 W · 169 L | +17.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Campbell Fighting Camels | 45c | 1,700$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.85 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Campbell Fighting Camels | 46c | 1,680$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.41 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 50c | 1,364$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.21 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Campbell Fighting Camels | 48c | 1,312$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.64 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Campbell Fighting Camels | 48c | 901.78$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.67 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Campbell Fighting Camels | 46c | 445.87$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.35 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Campbell Fighting Camels | 44c | 400$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Campbell Fighting Camels | 49c | 325$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.44 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 352 | 43.2%152 W · 200 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Campbell Fighting Camels | 45c | 190$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.6 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Campbell Fighting Camels | 47c | 169.19$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a82…b6bdbacked Campbell Fighting Camels | 47c | 117.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Campbell Fighting Camels | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 139 | 40.3%56 W · 83 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Campbell Fighting Camels | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 349 | 47.9%167 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 49c | 58.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed Campbell Fighting Camels | 47c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeff8…1bcfbacked Campbell Fighting Camels | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…88dfbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 50c | 39.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 40c | 33.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 47c | 25.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 449 | 55.2%248 W · 201 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Campbell Fighting Camels | 54c | 23.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Penn State Nittany Lions (-13.5)this page
- Campbell Fighting Camels vs. Penn State Nittany LionsPenn State Nittany Lions won
- Campbell Fighting Camels vs. Penn State Nittany Lions: O/U 152.5Over won
- Campbell Fighting Camels vs. Penn State Nittany Lions: O/U 153.5Over won
- Campbell Fighting Camels vs. Penn State Nittany Lions: O/U 154.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.