Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-09-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31b44a061c2e7506f3bfd82803e85128f73001500619517636a7082f4b4ea75b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $415,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $420,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $415,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2635…5408backed Yes | 4c | 250,000$9,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,000 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Yes | 4c | 79,372$2,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,857.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…625dbacked Yes | 4c | 23,614$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.86 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 4c | 7,517$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Yes | 4c | 7,231$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.6 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 4c | 5,050$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.58 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…c186backed Yes | 4c | 2,885$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 4c | 2,816$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.86 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62de…9ea7backed Yes | 4c | 2,600$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1647…2187backed Yes | 4c | 2,557$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a7…75e2backed Yes | 4c | 2,529$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 4c | 1,281$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…085fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,231$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb3…caf3backed Yes | 4c | 1,170$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…f949backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb620…5721backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x230b…d3d6backed Yes | 4c | 700$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d52…834ebacked Yes | 4c | 662.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d1…12b4backed Yes | 4c | 525$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…4a7abacked Yes | 4c | 500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 4c | 480$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa66…1c5bbacked Yes | 4c | 360$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-09-26?this page
- Will Bayern München vs. Werder Bremen end in a draw?No won
- Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.