Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41cc434590af62f435d8e0b8d2d53a0ea5c2f96cdbc1f828c28cafc49b557cce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,655,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,747,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,655,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2635…5408backed No | 11c | 985,356$110,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110,326.52 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed No | 11c | 106,584$11,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,724.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed No | 11c | 57,000$6,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,249.92 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe391…8a57backed No | 3c | 47,301$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed No | 11c | 17,041$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840.27 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…e270backed No | 3c | 11,340$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed No | 12c | 7,831$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed No | 11c | 7,000$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 10c | 6,720$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.99 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad6a…9dbdbacked No | 11c | 6,052$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.7 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 10c | 5,521$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.36 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…6579backed No | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed No | 12c | 3,617$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x421d…320abacked No | 9c | 3,333$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8d…8189backed No | 9c | 3,326$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 9c | 3,050$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.5 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe101…cd28backed No | 11c | 3,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked No | 12c | 2,541$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa6…d3fbbacked No | 11c | 2,500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c2…4074backed No | 11c | 2,220$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 8c | 2,106$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.61 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 9c | 2,075$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.44 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc864…97dfbacked No | 11c | 1,994$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.34 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849a…7163backed No | 9c | 1,973$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 9c | 1,003$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.03 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b5…e04fbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 11c | 945.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked No | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f84…f1c4backed No | 10c | 800$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ed…002bbacked No | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 8c | 599.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed No | 11c | 278.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked No | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 11c | 213.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x251d…a711backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf566…bbb9backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayern München win on 2025-09-26?this page
- Will Bayern München vs. Werder Bremen end in a draw?No won
- Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-09-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.