Movies · resolved market
Will "Nemesis" be the top global Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31e232e1b0be96efda7f5ff6b4633d61db5bb8fb2a01998b9f9f4464bedbc2e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,988
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4cb4…59efbacked No | 3c | 1,841$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,785.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.97per pick | 3cpaid | +3,233.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…76e5backed Yes | 5c | 417.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…62bebacked Yes | 14c | 270.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb1…5c16backed No | 80c | 154.13$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +8.4wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a42…3f93backed Yes | 15c | 123.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1b…f055backed Yes | 13c | 120.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Yes | 16c | 111.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x591c…619fbacked Yes | 20c | 95.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 18.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Nemesis" be the top global Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "Devil May Cry: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Legends: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Man on Fire" be the top global Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano" be the top global Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.