Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Dimitrov vs Michelsen
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3227874b137587f21f220a2a8d76227a58dae8f6837e4c4641489b2c2dfefc6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dimitrovof Dimitrov, Michelsen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Michelsen | 3c | 936$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Michelsen | 41c | 442.85$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.47 | 242 | 29.8%72 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Dimitrov | 60c | 263.1$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.24 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x271a…8fc7backed Dimitrov | 53c | 110.28$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Michelsen | 46c | 68.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Dimitrov | 56c | 52.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Michelsen | 39c | 47.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -12.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Dimitrov | 50c | 40.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…b444backed Dimitrov | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -42%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf854…3d75backed Dimitrov | 47c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca4a…338abacked Dimitrov | 60c | 27.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Dimitrov | 55c | 25.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a4…7941backed Michelsen | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c2…098ebacked Michelsen | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1faa…c1f6backed Michelsen | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7b…47e0backed Michelsen | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 60cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…7d0bbacked Michelsen | 56c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Dimitrov vs Michelsenthis page
- Dallas Open: Grigor Dimitrov vs Alex MichelsenMichelsen won
- Dimitrov vs. Michelsen: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Dimitrov vs. Michelsen: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Dimitrov (-1.5) vs Michelsen (+1.5)Michelsen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.