NFL · resolved market
Will DeVonta Smith record 51 or more receiving yards in Super Bowl LIX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3229bc63a5d91fb39901f50030ba754f6bb985a1970101163e54f09f9c3c26be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,871
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,871 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf05…70dabacked Over | 54c | 3,704$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,703.7 | 147 | 63.9%94 W · 53 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Under | 46c | 3,594$1,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,653.1 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.4wins | -0.27per pick | 46cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9c…7e44backed Under | 45c | 2,002$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.88 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Under | 46c | 1,900$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x980a…aed5backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 161 | 39.1%63 W · 98 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Under | 48c | 192.31$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.31 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Under | 46c | 110$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ca…0a1cbacked Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd1…f095backed Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DeVonta Smith record 51 or more receiving yards in Super Bowl LIX?this page
- Will A.J. Brown record 71 or more receiving yards in Super Bowl LIX?Under won
- Will Saquon Barkley record 14 or more receiving yards in Super Bowl LIX?Over won
- Will Travis Kelce record 64 or more receiving yards in Super Bowl LIX?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.