Other European Leagues · resolved market
Rio Ave FC vs. FC Famalicão: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x322f0bc70cea643a9ec1a018de9751bcf5571f1258d422d56b46bc56c23c7b91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 22c | 4,540$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.53 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 4,337$2,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,772.55 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 74c | 2,613$1,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.81 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…664abacked Over | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…820fbacked Under | 79c | 1,110$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.05 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…e4efbacked Over | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 65c | 770.23$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.18 | 387 | 47.5%184 W · 203 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac86…b3b3backed Over | 58c | 585.93$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b22…a210backed Over | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 67c | 447.76$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 316 | 61.7%195 W · 121 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3127…ff44backed Over | 10c | 320$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 21c | 309.52$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 227 | 27.8%63 W · 164 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 69c | 199.45$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 23c | 192.12$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.92 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 43c | 151.42$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 90 | 30%27 W · 63 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 53c | 140$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 513 | 56.3%289 W · 224 L | +23.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 26c | 125$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 1,107 | 47.7%528 W · 579 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 26c | 125$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 1,711 | 48.3%827 W · 884 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7368…a8bebacked Over | 28c | 105.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 71c | 102.08$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2246…e958backed Over | 22c | 100.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 74c | 97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.78 | 670 | 50.6%339 W · 331 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Over | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | +11.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf158…aa4bbacked Under | 73c | 48.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Over | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 230 | 61.3%141 W · 89 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b9…8714backed Over | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d76…90c2backed Over | 45c | 38.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…a082backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 78c | 28.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 70c | 20.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 70c | 16.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +9.4wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 75c | 13.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 283 | 49.1%139 W · 144 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rio Ave FC vs. FC Famalicão: O/U 1.5this page
- Rio Ave FC vs. FC Famalicão: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Rio Ave FC vs. FC Famalicão: O/U 2.5Under won
- Rio Ave FC vs. FC Famalicão: O/U 3.5Under won
- Rio Ave FC vs. FC Famalicão: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Rio Ave FC (-1.5)FC Famalicão won
- Spread: Rio Ave FC (-2.5)FC Famalicão won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.