Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Runa Team (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3347059c2cb11b609870e3bad63968a72d59f9a1174e8372b261b5cb1f9b9dea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Runa Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Runa Team | 15c | 1,895$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.09 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Aurora | 69c | 565$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.15 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Runa Team | 31c | 299.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf87a…82f7backed Aurora | 69c | 210$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Runa Team | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Aurora | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Runa Team | 16c | 102.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3c…0a8abacked Aurora | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…67dbbacked Aurora | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.