Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3397e614a0b1f8deee9de7994ee296d903744d7e6de5da5ce93d545e35271c46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 33c | 228.45$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.88 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 146.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 138.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x952d…ee48backed Yes | 8c | 136.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 22c | 122.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 112.42$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 18c | 111.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 18c | 102.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 18c | 97.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Yes | 19c | 72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03b…a317backed Yes | 22c | 69.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 67.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 20c | 66.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 17c | 65.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 35c | 53.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 70c | 51.71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 23c | 50.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 80c | 43.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 75c | 35.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 34.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 73c | 34.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 32c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 35c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 68c | 27.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 66c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 17.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a2…2c18backed No | 66c | 17.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or below on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.