Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99a2e15330fae55dcb953f9735671970cec99ad6ea6dcd7102822e90a46b0954
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 2c | 1,900$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked No | 1c | 1,528$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 6c | 759.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 43c | 520.03$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.34 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed Yes | 69c | 464$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.36 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 52c | 371.51$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.92 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 14c | 356.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 52c | 286.63$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 25c | 277.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.97 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 276.88$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 226.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 58c | 215.9$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 14c | 213.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 65c | 165$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.25 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 126.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…0de3backed Yes | 73c | 122.78$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.78 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 121.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.76 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 88.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 22c | 86.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 57c | 81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 58c | 79.69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 18c | 78.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.89 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 20c | 78.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 16c | 73.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.69 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 38c | 71.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 37c | 68.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 18c | 67.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.14 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 70c | 67.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…8cc8backed No | 20c | 62.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 66c | 61.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 34c | 58.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.71 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 35c | 57.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 74c | 53.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 75c | 51.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eac…df9cbacked No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed Yes | 75c | 49.37$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 25c | 49.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 28c | 46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed No | 39c | 45.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…94f9backed Yes | 75c | 42.77$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 26c | 40.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 75c | 39.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 72c | 38.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 78c | 36.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 35c | 32.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 44c | 24.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked No | 62c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da6…1615backed Yes | 68c | 23.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 78c | 22.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66d3…7badbacked No | 61c | 20.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…0381backed Yes | 58c | 19.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 74c | 18.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 17.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 71c | 15.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C or below on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.