South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-02-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33d02031b04bb843d4f61ca8d6a2f5816b25ea444b496ea0da6155c886092ea3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,240
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,240 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 77c | 873.11$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.95 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…25e8backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa5…4f56backed No | 75c | 398.77$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.77 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Yes | 23c | 374.88$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.22 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 19c | 330.84$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.01 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 19c | 321.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.13 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 18c | 320.22$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 78c | 291.73$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.18 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec5b…aff2backed Yes | 22c | 272.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Yes | 24c | 227$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…2347backed Yes | 6c | 225.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 17c | 222.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 21c | 149.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 312 | 26.6%83 W · 229 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 7c | 142$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 15c | 116.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 79c | 109.79$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…ff8cbacked Yes | 11c | 96.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…08bcbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 24c | 76.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 76c | 73.58$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 24c | 72.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 22c | 67.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 138 | 39.9%55 W · 83 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e4…10c9backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…2d57backed No | 80c | 16.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 114 | 61.4%70 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.52per pick | 72cpaid | -74%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-02-11?this page
- Will São Paulo FC vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw?No won
- Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-02-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.