South American Leagues · resolved market
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-02-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7734b2d2ec01588031f98edd14a4a7dac3e9c6660682c100ce9f643799a8d1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,549.81 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 49c | 3,911$1,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,987 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 24c | 3,053$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.08 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 17c | 2,845$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.2 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 76c | 2,527$1,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.95 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 75c | 1,203$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.49 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 23c | 1,050$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.96 | 196 | 30.6%60 W · 136 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf9…5b10backed No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 78c | 878$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.13 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…9762backed No | 5c | 532.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…cf8abacked No | 51c | 517.71$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.03 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…6941backed No | 23c | 489.01$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.18 | 144 | 43.1%62 W · 82 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 28c | 466$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.57 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 76c | 455$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.47 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 59c | 446.73$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.65 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 49c | 402.09$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.13 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 124 | 43.5%54 W · 70 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 32c | 298.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 72c | 287.1$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.25 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked No | 26c | 223.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x911f…221fbacked Yes | 47c | 214.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 52c | 209.86$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.13 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cae…fdc1backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed No | 8c | 189$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +4.7wins | +0.23per pick | 20cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed No | 9c | 151.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 308 | 41.2%127 W · 181 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 46c | 126.36$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.23 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed2…8958backed Yes | 78c | 121$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 37c | 115.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 49c | 113.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 49c | 110$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 78c | 105.23$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 49c | 102$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa27a…3173backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed No | 31c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…d3d0backed No | 16c | 79.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Yes | 77c | 72.77$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7713…daf0backed Yes | 50c | 66.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 24c | 64.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 50c | 62.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 201 | 42.3%85 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 175 | 42.3%74 W · 101 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…7c9abacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 35c | 47.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Yes | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | +14.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed No | 24c | 43.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb79…91b5backed No | 52c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 51c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 271 | 33.9%92 W · 179 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Yes | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b1…536dbacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 49c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ec…aeaabacked Yes | 46c | 32.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -39%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 53c | 30.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x504c…df40backed Yes | 50c | 26.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…045abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-02-11?this page
- Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-02-11?No won
- Will São Paulo FC vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.