Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Essence vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33d8da0f6f197cd0acb441159ff370cf0b17fb5f4ac18125e94f325e06de67f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Essenceof Team Essence, Ivory
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,523 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Ivory | 1c | 2,004$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 137 | 33.6%46 W · 91 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Essence | 66c | 805.77$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.11 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ad…6e72backed Ivory | 25c | 515.32$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8d75backed Ivory | 36c | 407.34$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.45 | 242 | 51.7%125 W · 117 L | +21.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…776bbacked Ivory | 54c | 168.8$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.95 | 192 | 51.6%99 W · 93 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815a…2540backed Ivory | 61c | 164.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd682…8d3dbacked Ivory | 60c | 160$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked Team Essence | 40c | 145$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Essence | 47c | 120.45$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.32 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Ivory | 40c | 105$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Ivory | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Team Essence | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Essence | 50c | 91.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Team Essence | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…ab22backed Team Essence | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Essence vs Ivory - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Essence vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group StageTeam Essence won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.