Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Metz win on 2026-02-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33d9a18e2775aa8e0dfa29fc6d043a1b7027ebf5735e8e65a7b7b0f6da0bfa63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 5c | 6,738$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.9 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 1c | 4,259$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 5c | 4,050$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,499$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Yes | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2263…ac78backed Yes | 5c | 2,520$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…c25bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd94a…2728backed Yes | 2c | 1,493$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 5c | 1,055$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62ca…1760backed Yes | 4c | 1,021$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 5c | 468$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 5c | 423.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa69a…3360backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 6c | 302$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 240 | 44.2%106 W · 134 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Metz win on 2026-02-21?this page
- Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Metz end in a draw?No won
- Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.