Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63f8c587a025058852474f1858fd42b9319e75d73768a4177d8a7f1b11d8bc13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $444,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $503,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $444,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37e0…024ebacked No | 14c | 50,000$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,000 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +31%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked No | 13c | 41,458$5,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,389.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…e7dbbacked No | 14c | 38,446$5,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,382.45 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…cf8abacked No | 13c | 24,343$3,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,164.64 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…ed41backed No | 14c | 20,000$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 14c | 12,876$1,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,802.59 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ec…41aebacked No | 15c | 11,700$1,755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,755 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2759…2b38backed No | 1c | 10,594$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.7 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd606…9e01backed No | 13c | 6,923$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.40per pick | 43cpaid | +87%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 12c | 5,439$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.59 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 11c | 5,119$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.09 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed No | 14c | 4,536$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked No | 13c | 4,385$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f20…96a8backed No | 15c | 3,927$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.05 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd776…ffebbacked No | 14c | 2,750$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86be…4490backed No | 15c | 2,740$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 15c | 2,050$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.5 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56a8…3639backed No | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 12c | 1,940$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.75 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…c460backed No | 12c | 1,800$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 13c | 1,780$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.09 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…e3a9backed No | 13c | 1,754$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x127f…8a29backed No | 7c | 1,499$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.94 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891f…88bfbacked No | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x896a…688dbacked No | 12c | 1,415$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.04 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3212…634ebacked No | 12c | 1,395$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.81 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 13c | 1,314$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.48 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 6c | 1,066$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee0…9c9abacked No | 7c | 1,040$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9264…bca3backed No | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 14c | 962.98$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.82 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe998…b7f0backed No | 14c | 698.56$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed No | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked No | 13c | 600$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 13c | 585.6$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 13c | 448$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65d8…bac6backed No | 14c | 428.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15f2…b7bcbacked No | 15c | 366.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf076…9ac4backed No | 12c | 334$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked No | 15c | 333$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5781…bbfbbacked No | 15c | 292.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 14c | 287.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 310 | 49.4%153 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc864…97dfbacked No | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…ec5ebacked No | 13c | 284.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed No | 14c | 276.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed No | 6c | 259.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 150 | 48.7%73 W · 77 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9f…b8cebacked No | 14c | 245$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7e…7f73backed No | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fad…374cbacked No | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bb…7466backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked No | 8c | 179.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 14c | 149.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 130 | 16.2%21 W · 109 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8311…3ed4backed No | 7c | 147.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e69…200ebacked No | 14c | 139.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -58%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…63fcbacked No | 14c | 138.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf11b…3fe3backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 14c | 110.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed No | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…dea4backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…7fc9backed No | 14c | 99.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…0a8dbacked No | 13c | 95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 11c | 90.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 181 | 55.2%100 W · 81 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…33d5backed No | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed No | 14c | 84.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6a…0665backed No | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-21?this page
- Will FC Metz win on 2026-02-21?No won
- Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Metz end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.