La Liga · resolved market
Málaga CF vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33e6fe17644ce25a843b27fc4c6dcb235a79fb877190d8ca507d72fb3ac2883d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3b7…dbdabacked Under | 63c | 1,979$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 36c | 1,414$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.32 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Over | 25c | 900$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 146 | 21.9%32 W · 114 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 778.04$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.16 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 37c | 337.9$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.88 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 63c | 112.42$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 225 | 53.8%121 W · 104 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 62c | 106.93$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d2…5614backed Over | 72c | 58.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8604…cb8fbacked Over | 75c | 47.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 240 | 47.9%115 W · 125 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ca…edbabacked Over | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Málaga CF vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Málaga CF vs. AD Ceuta FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Málaga CF vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Málaga CF vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Málaga CF vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.