La Liga · resolved market
Málaga CF vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9901605bdaf5dc85a7e11fd7b94b08afead7ed6c52bd5f34a695e97153ed9db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $173,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $174,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $173,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Over | 46c | 100,000$46,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,999.99 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Under | 54c | 85,505$46,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,172.62 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked Over | 46c | 43,282$19,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,372.37 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed Under | 54c | 42,081$22,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,703 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…2d16backed Under | 56c | 15,884$8,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,921.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 7,218$3,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,886.38 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 54c | 4,127$2,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,228.57 | 640 | 46.9%300 W · 340 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Over | 45c | 3,500$1,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,925 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…393abacked Over | 46c | 2,905$1,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,568.45 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 2,007$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.51 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Under | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Over | 46c | 1,522$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.85 | 104 | 37.5%39 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 46c | 1,421$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.34 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 45c | 1,322$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.95 | 532 | 46.1%245 W · 287 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Over | 44c | 800$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9569…27fdbacked Over | 45c | 223.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.82 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ba…5435backed Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f2…d776backed Over | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 54c | 110.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Over | 47c | 107.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -5.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 255 | 51.4%131 W · 124 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…3f67backed Under | 32c | 99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Over | 46c | 89.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed Over | 47c | 89.24$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2de5…4a03backed Over | 47c | 86.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…600dbacked Over | 47c | 77.58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Under | 54c | 71.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca39…4ed7backed Over | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 47c | 63.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 170 | 36.5%62 W · 108 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 47c | 45.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a53dbacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Over | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc436…76c9backed Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20c8…6354backed Over | 46c | 32.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5199…8870backed Over | 47c | 29.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc307…bf36backed Over | 47c | 24.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Over | 47c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Málaga CF vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Málaga CF vs. AD Ceuta FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Málaga CF vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Málaga CF vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Málaga CF vs. AD Ceuta FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.