Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33ed226ecb54b4e00b2bf08c01daf33807e1759fa8978e9af331d16a7fbf84dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 32c | 641.52$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 20c | 437.7$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 74c | 436.08$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.71 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 392.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 19c | 346.78$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.74 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 12c | 325$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.5 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 26c | 299.05$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.06 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 266$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 69c | 203.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.16 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 20c | 184.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 26c | 182$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…2dedbacked Yes | 6c | 178.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.75 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +227.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 35c | 113.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 12c | 97.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.47 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 67c | 96.65$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 12c | 92.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.35 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 41c | 72.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 43c | 67.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca9…8952backed No | 42c | 65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d3…ce62backed Yes | 29c | 53.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 51c | 48.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 57c | 42.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 72c | 42.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 38c | 40.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 39.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bd…9cd6backed No | 51c | 37.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 40c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62b3…b43cbacked Yes | 47c | 32.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf82e…ad17backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 73c | 27.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 22.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…8eeabacked Yes | 63c | 16.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.