CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs MANA eSports - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x340b6dc9036d29f95476b14e6aaae42535b8e6bd88fb26a19aac4a3f88d192aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ASTRALof ASTRAL, MANA eSports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f27…4fb3backed ASTRAL | 55c | 1,653$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.85 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed MANA eSports | 46c | 997.62$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.93 | 527 | 50.7%267 W · 260 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…e409backed ASTRAL | 54c | 555$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.3 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc746…3943backed MANA eSports | 46c | 550.54$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0083…80fdbacked MANA eSports | 46c | 408$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.68 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…891cbacked MANA eSports | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked MANA eSports | 40c | 238.27$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.09 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56d6…4404backed ASTRAL | 55c | 140$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 640 | 58.1%372 W · 268 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed ASTRAL | 59c | 128$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b2…4ec3backed ASTRAL | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed MANA eSports | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 593 | 43.2%256 W · 337 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked ASTRAL | 58c | 87.55$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fd…b019backed MANA eSports | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…2fe4backed ASTRAL | 61c | 22.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 212 | 47.6%101 W · 111 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs MANA eSports - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs MANA eSports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group BMANA eSports won
- Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs MANA eSports - Map 1 WinnerMANA eSports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.