Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on March 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x342264d66f9a3948872e609827286841c27748998bcb0e62ca97886db06b5df6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,595 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb2c…2ac8backed Yes | 58c | 2,264$1,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,313.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x247f…6749backed No | 57c | 745.81$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.19 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 42c | 528.65$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.97 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5118…494cbacked Yes | 58c | 480$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f28…0417backed Yes | 53c | 363$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8527…20a7backed Yes | 53c | 345$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c4…0ff0backed Yes | 53c | 335$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55e0…1cfcbacked No | 57c | 326$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…3498backed No | 57c | 319$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd96…17acbacked No | 57c | 312$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ff…3851backed No | 57c | 310$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b1…344bbacked No | 57c | 285$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6df…680fbacked No | 47c | 262$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81fb…8b92backed Yes | 53c | 262$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fc…9ceabacked Yes | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 12c | 249.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82d…f311backed Yes | 62c | 243$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…e6b8backed No | 57c | 231$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf56…6944backed No | 47c | 224$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6c…6303backed No | 47c | 220$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…6aa4backed Yes | 62c | 220$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa75e…72a7backed No | 57c | 219$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfc…fda8backed No | 47c | 215$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b0…30f4backed No | 47c | 211$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5682…9114backed No | 47c | 211$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdb…9018backed No | 57c | 207$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27e6…b7a4backed No | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3518…6742backed No | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd71…dc4ebacked No | 38c | 198$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe86d…2a21backed Yes | 53c | 196$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6456…5e00backed Yes | 62c | 190$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…82b8backed No | 47c | 184$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…b96bbacked No | 47c | 167$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbd…1c65backed No | 38c | 167$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8275…d327backed No | 38c | 153$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…122abacked No | 47c | 138$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…b850backed No | 38c | 135$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x982a…6851backed Yes | 41c | 124.2$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 848 | 46%390 W · 458 L | +51.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Yes | 17c | 74.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d27…676ebacked Yes | 50c | 68.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed No | 66c | 58.3$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5043…dabebacked No | 57c | 54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 40c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a76…53debacked Yes | 52c | 43.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on March 19?this page
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $380 on March 19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.