Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Cina vs Opelka
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x344d96c79c510a98c9568919f590192bb2b0adeb73de89c4f741f9a7e39f8118
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Opelkaof Cina, Opelka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 6 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Opelka | 41c | 500$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cina | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8005…16eabacked Opelka | 41c | 224$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.16 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +60%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Cina | 59c | 203.34$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.97 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Cina | 62c | 59.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 1,639 | 55.1%903 W · 736 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Opelka | 38c | 54.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Cina vs Opelkathis page
- Cina vs. Opelka: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Roland Garros ATP: Federico Cina vs Reilly OpelkaFederico Cina won
- Set Handicap: Cina (-1.5) vs Opelka (+1.5)Opelka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.