Premier League · resolved market
Manchester United FC leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3454e988dfb8af357886826520fbb2f79777498b04e9b207d95547b523acf60b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,820 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 65c | 3,169$2,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.6 | 6,217 | 45.6%2,834 W · 3,383 L | -33.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc699…7961backed Yes | 39c | 1,984$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769 | 125 | 32.8%41 W · 84 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 61c | 1,526$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.17 | 1,080 | 45.2%488 W · 592 L | -19.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 37c | 799.51$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.55 | 306 | 24.5%75 W · 231 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 36c | 694$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.84 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…12cebacked Yes | 29c | 685$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.95 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 63c | 610.01$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.7 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 1,305 | 42.4%553 W · 752 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 62c | 499.26$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.72 | 968 | 43.8%424 W · 544 L | -10.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 63c | 175.79$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.01 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 65c | 92.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 365 | 54.5%199 W · 166 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 63c | 45.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…d02bbacked No | 64c | 40.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked No | 63c | 37.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0742…86a0backed Yes | 37c | 32.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 64c | 23.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 497 | 53.7%267 W · 230 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester United FC leading at halftime?this page
- AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester United FC: Draw at halftime?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.