MLB · resolved market
Mets vs. Nationals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x347078ffdc4770b53aa069b3842114c60cd3c40e29a2696085249d1d2f48c0ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nationalsof Mets, Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Nationals | 32c | 13,603$4,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,292.87 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Mets | 68c | 12,396$8,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,453.28 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Nationals | 39c | 8,314$3,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,042.04 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Mets | 40c | 1,894$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.75 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Nationals | 42c | 1,309$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.18 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Mets | 57c | 1,044$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Nationals | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Mets | 72c | 827.49$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.07 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Nationals | 35c | 527.2$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.19 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Nationals | 43c | 465.94$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.59 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Nationals | 42c | 424.97$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.48 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Mets | 58c | 342.18$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…24e8backed Nationals | 43c | 242$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.94 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7be9…33a2backed Mets | 58c | 232$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.56 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Nationals | 41c | 192.85$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.78 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mets | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mets | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…98ebbacked Mets | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d1…7c31backed Nationals | 43c | 169$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +81%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6180…b73ebacked Mets | 58c | 163$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…cd12backed Nationals | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Nationals | 39c | 52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Mets | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Mets | 59c | 42.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Mets | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Nationals | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Mets | 58c | 17.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.