Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Cal State Fullerton Titans (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x356709735b1d285a4b86ae0cd13159c0d6f889fd804f5b5520742058315b51eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cal State Fullerton Titansof Cal State Fullerton Titans, UC Davis Aggies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,130 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked UC Davis Aggies | 52c | 1,908$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.73 | 572 | 48.1%275 W · 297 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cal State Fullerton Titans | 57c | 1,793$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.35 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Cal State Fullerton Titans | 45c | 996.81$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.17 | 372 | 46.2%172 W · 200 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Cal State Fullerton Titans | 45c | 600.77$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed UC Davis Aggies | 16c | 544.4$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.16 | 429 | 34.3%147 W · 282 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cal State Fullerton Titans | 59c | 533.7$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.42 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…2c0abacked UC Davis Aggies | 33c | 301.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed UC Davis Aggies | 45c | 237.18$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.7 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cal State Fullerton Titans | 49c | 232.2$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.31 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Cal State Fullerton Titans | 41c | 194$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.46 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed UC Davis Aggies | 55c | 181.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed UC Davis Aggies | 57c | 173.7$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.14 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Cal State Fullerton Titans | 46c | 143.73$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.62 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked UC Davis Aggies | 55c | 136$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.43 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Cal State Fullerton Titans | 64c | 105.47$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 353 | 38.5%136 W · 217 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Cal State Fullerton Titans | 45c | 101.79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e9…6d8ebacked UC Davis Aggies | 57c | 99.14$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.51 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked UC Davis Aggies | 55c | 91.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked UC Davis Aggies | 55c | 90.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…d6e6backed UC Davis Aggies | 54c | 90$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Cal State Fullerton Titans | 55c | 78.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed UC Davis Aggies | 55c | 64.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cal State Fullerton Titans | 50c | 61.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…7759backed UC Davis Aggies | 36c | 57.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked UC Davis Aggies | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4469backed Cal State Fullerton Titans | 71c | 36.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked UC Davis Aggies | 43c | 28.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Cal State Fullerton Titans | 56c | 19.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cal State Fullerton Titans (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Cal State Fullerton Titans (-1.5)Cal State Fullerton Titans won
- Spread: Cal State Fullerton Titans (-12.5)UC Davis Aggies won
- UC Davis Aggies vs. Cal State Fullerton TitansCal State Fullerton Titans won
- UC Davis Aggies vs. Cal State Fullerton Titans: O/U 140.5Over won
- UC Davis Aggies vs. Cal State Fullerton Titans: O/U 142.5Over won
- UC Davis Aggies vs. Cal State Fullerton Titans: O/U 155.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.