Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35769b36465ab1ea361dd2dcb572747237d44f7cce7e00bb3bc03385e3c484d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Rune Eaters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,826
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,826 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Rune Eaters | 0c | 6,140$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Rune Eaters | 28c | 3,587$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.19 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…6313backed Aurora | 77c | 2,400$1,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.71 | 161 | 60.2%97 W · 64 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Aurora | 71c | 1,662$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.72 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f2…d84fbacked Rune Eaters | 23c | 988.57$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.43 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Rune Eaters | 22c | 586.5$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.94 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Aurora | 76c | 490$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.5 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc68…e5c6backed Rune Eaters | 25c | 486.6$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Aurora | 72c | 406.13$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.04 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Rune Eaters | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Rune Eaters | 21c | 234.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Rune Eaters | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Rune Eaters | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Rune Eaters | 28c | 177.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Aurora | 72c | 159.46$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 110 | 52.7%58 W · 52 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 75c | 113.87$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed Aurora | 77c | 112.56$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Rune Eaters | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Rune Eaters | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - FISSURE Universe Episode 8 Play-In Group DAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.