La Liga · resolved market
Will UD Almería win on 2026-01-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x363da9968b8a058645a8fd62118bdff0457d7f38ea9bf6b0dafe69ca36fbedd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 1,175$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.57 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 77c | 726.68$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 1,419 | 45.6%647 W · 772 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 72c | 357.95$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.99 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Yes | 27c | 350$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 342 | 52%178 W · 164 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…e826backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Yes | 23c | 250$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e4…29debacked Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 29c | 146.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 216 | 26.9%58 W · 158 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 26c | 137.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 494 | 47%232 W · 262 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 22c | 134.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 72c | 116.37$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Yes | 26c | 111.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 319 | 52.4%167 W · 152 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Yes | 29c | 101.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82b2…bdc4backed Yes | 23c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Yes | 26c | 89.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 283 | 42.8%121 W · 162 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 170 | 36.5%62 W · 108 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…c966backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0435…906bbacked Yes | 16c | 63.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb64…e25fbacked Yes | 26c | 54.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2a…3daebacked Yes | 26c | 42.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaad…b5a9backed Yes | 28c | 40.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 72c | 35.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 158 | 51.3%81 W · 77 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 74c | 33.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed No | 73c | 19.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will UD Almería win on 2026-01-25?this page
- Will SD Eibar vs. UD Almería end in a draw?No won
- Will SD Eibar win on 2026-01-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.