NHL · resolved market
KHL: Shanghai Dragons vs. Amur Khabarovsk
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x363ec2d925f5b813af33ab2445c61aef23d5f1a39ec4a8a13ce5b003ff84fe1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shanghai Dragonsof Shanghai Dragons, Amur Khabarovsk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Shanghai Dragons | 56c | 1,054$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.37 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Amur Khabarovsk | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Amur Khabarovsk | 43c | 275.44$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.44 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1969…a09cbacked Shanghai Dragons | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8f…178abacked Shanghai Dragons | 63c | 119$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +96%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Amur Khabarovsk | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 225 | 43.1%97 W · 128 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Amur Khabarovsk | 39c | 91.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Shanghai Dragons | 55c | 91.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Amur Khabarovsk | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Shanghai Dragons | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Shanghai Dragons | 58c | 47.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Amur Khabarovsk | 44c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Amur Khabarovsk | 37c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Amur Khabarovsk | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…5b04backed Shanghai Dragons | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.