MLB · resolved market
Astros vs. Orioles: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3682edeb579f6873f6285c57976b75c7ea2acf4f4aa1da43a1236dc901a06b0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ca9…ad82backed Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…4621backed Under | 48c | 53.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb2…be15backed Under | 48c | 51.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb217…5b91backed Over | 56c | 49.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…036bbacked Under | 48c | 49.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…df01backed Over | 56c | 47.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc782…3fc5backed Over | 56c | 47.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43a9…fd2abacked Over | 56c | 46.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c0…32e8backed Under | 48c | 46.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a7…dd85backed Over | 56c | 46.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f43…efd4backed Under | 48c | 46.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Over | 53c | 45.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 543 | 45.5%247 W · 296 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a67…7438backed Under | 48c | 45.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95f6…57c1backed Under | 48c | 45.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe891…75dabacked Over | 58c | 45.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bca…be9fbacked Under | 47c | 44.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb3…858dbacked Over | 56c | 43.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9abe…404fbacked Under | 47c | 42.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa2…9fe2backed Under | 48c | 42.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef79…251ebacked Over | 57c | 42.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5b…6da4backed Over | 57c | 40.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6444…57c3backed Over | 56c | 39.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Astros vs. Orioles: O/U 8.5this page
- Astros vs. OriolesAstros won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.