TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Astros vs. Orioles

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Astrosof Astros, Orioles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$121,288
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$128,255

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,288 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 317 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x88a2…d974backed Astros48c10,404$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,403.6919649.5%97 W · 99 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e4a…311cbacked Orioles52c10,250$5,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,329.9712247.5%58 W · 64 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Astros52c9,107$4,781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,325.971,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e94…6243backed Orioles37c9,001$3,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,309.554345.5%247 W · 296 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2f8…56b6backed Orioles30c8,008$2,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,411.3321747%102 W · 115 L-0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fa0…7894backed Astros66c6,000$3,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,040.17455.4%41 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Orioles51c5,714$2,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,939.2856451.1%288 W · 276 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Astros54c5,198$2,827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,370.0425551%130 W · 125 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed Orioles52c4,880$2,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,540.397450%37 W · 37 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x20da…e704backed Orioles13c2,977$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.055115.7%8 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-50.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Orioles52c2,914$1,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,515.2823455.6%130 W · 104 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Orioles33c2,742$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.99,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf54…3386backed Orioles25c2,260$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.82458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Astros48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,04093240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Orioles52c1,670$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.41,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2728…4f96backed Orioles21c1,416$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30053448.9%261 W · 273 L-1.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebd8…570cbacked Astros56c1,260$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.243946%202 W · 237 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Orioles55c1,091$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.6654048.3%261 W · 279 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f82…9ae1backed Orioles19c1,053$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20022948.9%112 W · 117 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Orioles50c1,003$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50034550.7%175 W · 170 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Orioles52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5201,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Astros48c999.94$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.971,01051.2%517 W · 493 L+36.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x519f…2af7backed Orioles53c943.4$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003455.9%19 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Astros47c900$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47783248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Orioles10c580$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Orioles53c566$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.981,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Astros68c565.55$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.792,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Astros48c538$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.7663152.6%332 W · 299 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Orioles37c530$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.1496133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Astros48c508.81$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.5870946.1%327 W · 382 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Orioles32c483.24$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.644,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Astros47c466.35$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.3561346.3%284 W · 329 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Orioles53c431.98$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.951,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Astros67c421$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.9368769.6%478 W · 209 L+60.4wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Astros47c400$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2121,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Astros47c400$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2123,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Astros73c376.06$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.436,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc62f…f330backed Astros49c326.53$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.5314649.3%72 W · 74 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked Astros48c311.99$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.2331347.9%150 W · 163 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb16…96b5backed Astros62c308.79$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.348366.3%55 W · 28 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Orioles53c300$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1591,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Orioles52c298.29$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.111,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28b6…4eddbacked Astros47c279.56$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.561450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4487…08c6backed Orioles52c250$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1309551.6%49 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Orioles43c220$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.61,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2a…2aaebacked Astros47c212.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.839448.9%46 W · 48 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Astros47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.772,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Orioles54c209.26$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11399951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4779…211fbacked Astros47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1065651.8%29 W · 27 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec14…afbbbacked Orioles53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1068051.3%41 W · 39 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7620…b9eabacked Astros47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1065742.1%24 W · 33 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2fd6…966cbacked Orioles53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1067346.6%34 W · 39 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c61…a273backed Orioles53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1067546.7%35 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc94…72debacked Astros47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1065156.9%29 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67b8…729cbacked Orioles53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1067960.8%48 W · 31 L+8.7wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+22.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7c32…3b86backed Orioles53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1067251.4%37 W · 35 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb290…27c5backed Orioles53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1065147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7205…c850backed Orioles53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1065358.5%31 W · 22 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+19.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0138…cdf1backed Astros47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1065343.4%23 W · 30 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28fe…620bbacked Orioles53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1068353%44 W · 39 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb523…0d72backed Astros47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1065354.7%29 W · 24 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb340…6b02backed Astros47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1065549.1%27 W · 28 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ef2…220bbacked Astros47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1065339.6%21 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x46f5…31d4backed Astros47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1067554.7%41 W · 34 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc213…f12bbacked Astros47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1065250%26 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d18…f551backed Orioles53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1065139.2%20 W · 31 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-19.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x069c…ed7bbacked Astros47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1065046%23 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2916…bb5bbacked Astros47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1065435.2%19 W · 35 L-5.9wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xfffa…f24dbacked Astros47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1065352.8%28 W · 25 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b3b…b5bdbacked Astros47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1067554.7%41 W · 34 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7a1…99aabacked Orioles53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1067044.3%31 W · 39 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x40a0…a1c0backed Orioles53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1065550.9%28 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf50e…b539backed Astros47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1065240.4%21 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e00…c26cbacked Astros47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1065054%27 W · 23 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7c6…ce67backed Astros47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1065545.5%25 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ab5…dce6backed Astros47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1065444.4%24 W · 30 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9459…e52bbacked Orioles53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1067256.9%41 W · 31 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8be8…7066backed Astros47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1065050%25 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe91a…5145backed Astros47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1065152.9%27 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf01…0439backed Astros47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1065050%25 W · 25 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b42…5d65backed Astros47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1065339.6%21 W · 32 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-14.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x20ce…215fbacked Astros47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1065248.1%25 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf15e…23e4backed Orioles53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1065646.4%26 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31b1…9335backed Astros47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1065841.4%24 W · 34 L-5.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e6b…122dbacked Astros47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1065947.5%28 W · 31 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25c6…8325backed Orioles53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1067753.2%41 W · 36 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2217…2522backed Astros47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1065152.9%27 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1f3…94d4backed Astros47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1065143.1%22 W · 29 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5581…12e8backed Astros47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1065046%23 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb90d…0082backed Orioles53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1067656.6%43 W · 33 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+14.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6718…41babacked Astros47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1067354.8%40 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x045f…bfe7backed Orioles53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1067753.2%41 W · 36 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x479b…64e9backed Astros47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1065349.1%26 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9af2…9d81backed Orioles53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1067553.3%40 W · 35 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5700…a6babacked Astros47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1065345.3%24 W · 29 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb0c…9e00backed Orioles53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1065440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x46d8…c629backed Orioles53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1065255.8%29 W · 23 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad26…e8efbacked Orioles53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1068149.4%40 W · 41 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb937…bdbebacked Orioles53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1065742.1%24 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f21…7c7fbacked Orioles53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1067843.6%34 W · 44 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.