College Football · resolved market
Will Texas beat Arizona State by 13 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36b1ccb771da7c9fdfabe5c84ca434e086cbc803c8300a09479f838f87a8f05f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ASUof Texas, ASU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c80…a608backed ASU | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Texas | 50c | 3,666$1,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,833.05 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed ASU | 50c | 3,531$1,761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,770.13 | 190 | 43.2%82 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Texas | 50c | 2,551$1,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275.5 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x340f…3cf5backed Texas | 47c | 1,047$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.15 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked ASU | 49c | 799.99$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Texas | 51c | 514.7$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.5 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Texas | 55c | 210$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…1b78backed Texas | 52c | 113.04$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f68…802abacked ASU | 50c | 113$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Texas | 52c | 110$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c1…416abacked Texas | 51c | 108$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…4b6fbacked ASU | 50c | 100.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Texas | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3831…c9bfbacked Texas | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0037…051cbacked Texas | 51c | 85.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd13…a813backed ASU | 50c | 84.96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54f7…2c0fbacked ASU | 50c | 84.4$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed ASU | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.