Asian League · resolved market
Will Fagiano Okayama vs. V-Varen Nagasaki end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36b42c90e858fcb5799fb801ee1c9bba5a868be7633af6d2a7fd295256edb61c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,454 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 38c | 6,291$2,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,908.25 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 59c | 5,822$3,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,443.37 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 78c | 1,993$1,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,558.65 | 626 | 52.6%329 W · 297 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 38c | 1,190$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.18 | 93 | 25.8%24 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked No | 59c | 1,026$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.76 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 33c | 934.3$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.11 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…c161backed Yes | 42c | 462.05$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.06 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Yes | 74c | 329.58$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.53 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 46c | 240$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.48 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | +188.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 44c | 102.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 56c | 99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 70c | 95.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 24c | 90$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 33c | 67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 294 | 25.2%74 W · 220 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 29c | 63.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aef…f8dfbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 75c | 49.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 487 | 68%331 W · 156 L | +69.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 60c | 45.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 141 | 53.2%75 W · 66 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…9f37backed Yes | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefad…9c1bbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b7…fefdbacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fagiano Okayama vs. V-Varen Nagasaki end in a draw?this page
- Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-03-21?No won
- Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-03-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.