Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Cheeki_Breeki (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36c1a73dc529081e3d63edd6f7a7c16e4633755dbf93b41607e5f238bf243a45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cheeki_Breekiof Nigma Galaxy, Cheeki_Breeki
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06a8…2927backed Nigma Galaxy | 69c | 2,403$1,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,663.38 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Cheeki_Breeki | 33c | 1,977$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,317.89 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Cheeki_Breeki | 27c | 1,355$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.44 | 82 | 23.2%19 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Cheeki_Breeki | 24c | 694.86$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.19 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Cheeki_Breeki | 20c | 500$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba79…4c9ebacked Cheeki_Breeki | 43c | 459.94$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Nigma Galaxy | 59c | 400$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.9 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9473…ad17backed Cheeki_Breeki | 36c | 312.61$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.07 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Cheeki_Breeki | 66c | 308.23$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.49 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 224.56$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Cheeki_Breeki | 14c | 200$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 61 | 3.3%2 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -61%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11ff…4447backed Nigma Galaxy | 29c | 183.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 225 | 34.2%77 W · 148 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0edc…2074backed Nigma Galaxy | 47c | 183.41$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…c209backed Nigma Galaxy | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf0…df85backed Nigma Galaxy | 44c | 172.2$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked Cheeki_Breeki | 43c | 143.95$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.15 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Cheeki_Breeki | 56c | 110.09$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.44 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cd…e2abbacked Nigma Galaxy | 44c | 110.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Cheeki_Breeki | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…9c2fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 90.61$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…affbbacked Nigma Galaxy | 67c | 79.19$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03b…21e2backed Cheeki_Breeki | 43c | 48.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked Cheeki_Breeki | 53c | 37.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Cheeki_Breeki | 43c | 36.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842b…b366backed Cheeki_Breeki | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bf…ceeabacked Cheeki_Breeki | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…7d07backed Cheeki_Breeki | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 254 | 44.5%113 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Cheeki_Breeki | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Nigma Galaxy | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…5623backed Nigma Galaxy | 59c | 20.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd25…03b9backed Nigma Galaxy | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Cheeki_Breeki (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Cheeki_Breeki - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Cheeki_Breeki - Game 2 WinnerCheeki_Breeki won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.