CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs K27 - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37256fec032064f0c43e2b91c0583aa7fd732b143efefbb3f8dfb8933be2ab8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- K27of Ursa, K27
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,249 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked K27 | 52c | 1,159$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.21 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Ursa | 48c | 681.68$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.47 | 807 | 44.6%360 W · 447 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c95…8a0bbacked Ursa | 29c | 410$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4687…8d42backed Ursa | 67c | 373.66$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 529 | 47.1%249 W · 280 L | -14.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ursa | 37c | 348.01$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.32 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed K27 | 58c | 252.86$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.76 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee1…f616backed K27 | 68c | 138.14$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…a3babacked K27 | 75c | 118.57$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 1,117 | 68.6%766 W · 351 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Ursa | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44cb…feb2backed Ursa | 25c | 56.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Ursa | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 958 | 49.8%477 W · 481 L | -17.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked K27 | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1,043 | 57.3%598 W · 445 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked K27 | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Ursa | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -10.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd067…9b9abacked K27 | 78c | 17.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 456 | 63.6%290 W · 166 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked K27 | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 275 | 56.7%156 W · 119 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs K27 - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs K27 (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 PlayoffsK27 won
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs K27 - Map 2 WinnerK27 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.