CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs K27 (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x963d97fa62c493fe34ccbcbd475fb67c739e0006cd43cfbabb0a1bf6da6fc00d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- K27of Ursa, K27
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Ursa | 0c | 8,869$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0e…ad94backed K27 | 71c | 2,763$1,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.99 | 113 | 65.5%74 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Ursa | 31c | 1,767$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.9 | 844 | 54.3%458 W · 386 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Ursa | 25c | 1,297$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.89 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb17a…c30dbacked Ursa | 28c | 1,200$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1f…a252backed Ursa | 44c | 794.42$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.62 | 150 | 33.3%50 W · 100 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked K27 | 67c | 742$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.96 | 358 | 50.8%182 W · 176 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked K27 | 55c | 702.42$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.09 | 750 | 56.8%426 W · 324 L | +47.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Ursa | 32c | 639.19$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.21 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Ursa | 21c | 636$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.98 | 807 | 44.6%360 W · 447 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fd…8664backed Ursa | 21c | 558$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed K27 | 67c | 495$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.35 | 392 | 39.8%156 W · 236 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe5…75c1backed Ursa | 5c | 465$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x806e…314fbacked Ursa | 6c | 462$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked K27 | 69c | 456.1$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.52 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -14.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc006…3c94backed K27 | 68c | 427.12$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.12 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ursa | 18c | 410.86$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.19 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Ursa | 16c | 401$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b3…437abacked Ursa | 7c | 386$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a9…f5dfbacked K27 | 79c | 379$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.59 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked K27 | 74c | 358.86$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.43 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa4…4a42backed Ursa | 15c | 334.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Ursa | 21c | 310.45$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.49 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3bd…d06dbacked Ursa | 6c | 290$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa0…c3acbacked Ursa | 18c | 286.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +6.4wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…9785backed Ursa | 9c | 273$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe741…5054backed Ursa | 5c | 268$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Ursa | 33c | 250$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 540 | 32.4%175 W · 365 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5e…fcd0backed Ursa | 5c | 243$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Ursa | 25c | 242.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…e813backed Ursa | 11c | 196$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ursa | 16c | 188.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8945…640bbacked K27 | 69c | 182.92$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.61 | 262 | 57.6%151 W · 111 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x886e…98e0backed K27 | 79c | 179$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa62c…a3c1backed K27 | 77c | 143.39$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Ursa | 29c | 141.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 601 | 47.4%285 W · 316 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Ursa | 19c | 139.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x757d…1496backed Ursa | 29c | 130$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Ursa | 34c | 124$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8359…5944backed Ursa | 15c | 111.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 697 | 32%223 W · 474 L | -46.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked K27 | 69c | 109.7$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Ursa | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,281 | 37.8%484 W · 797 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf2…1e5bbacked K27 | 67c | 91.55$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Ursa | 33c | 88.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 456 | 39.3%179 W · 277 L | -29.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked Ursa | 25c | 76.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 335 | 39.4%132 W · 203 L | -19.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd067…9b9abacked K27 | 79c | 75.28$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 456 | 63.6%290 W · 166 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked K27 | 68c | 73.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 257 | 53.7%138 W · 119 L | -20.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b48…74cbbacked K27 | 71c | 69.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…f7dfbacked K27 | 68c | 67.21$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 180 | 63.9%115 W · 65 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Ursa | 32c | 62.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Ursa | 30c | 57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 489 | 48.7%238 W · 251 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Ursa | 20c | 55.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…c3b4backed Ursa | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 339 | 50.7%172 W · 167 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…3533backed K27 | 75c | 40.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Ursa | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 497 | 45.9%228 W · 269 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked Ursa | 33c | 39.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,078 | 32%345 W · 733 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7944…9f9dbacked K27 | 77c | 35.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…2877backed K27 | 75c | 31.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 648 | 54.3%352 W · 296 L | +25.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked K27 | 68c | 27.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x651b…c3b2backed K27 | 68c | 27.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Ursa | 42c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 543 | 46.2%251 W · 292 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49e7…7bd5backed K27 | 67c | 24.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb5…b56dbacked K27 | 67c | 23.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed K27 | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd612…0477backed K27 | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs K27 (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs K27 - Map 1 WinnerK27 won
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs K27 - Map 2 WinnerK27 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.