Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3738160e0f53b3b87a5f4b79f2adfd2b0b3655e366b3573dfc3b1a78bdb5994d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 348.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 34c | 264.39$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.03 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…39c2backed Yes | 6c | 175$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 103 | 11.7%12 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 168.88$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 38c | 149.56$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 136.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 40c | 114.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 111.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 110$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 73c | 106.88$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 106.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 97.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 60c | 90.17$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…6047backed Yes | 35c | 84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 82.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 82.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 76.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…85c6backed Yes | 35c | 73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 72c | 60.94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…87a6backed No | 70c | 60.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…7432backed No | 65c | 59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 58.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc90f…6ea9backed No | 65c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 54.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 36c | 51.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d76…7bbfbacked No | 65c | 43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 27c | 40.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 30c | 33.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 32c | 31.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 30.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea1…435ebacked Yes | 36c | 29.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c35…4801backed No | 58c | 25.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…a71bbacked No | 67c | 21.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 63c | 20.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 77c | 19.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 82°F or higher on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on May 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.