Tennis · resolved market
ITF M25 Muttenz Men: Matthew William Donald vs Louis Wessels
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37c077b7d31c48e9c3b22e5e9250713a98660d98731e155476ff3b7fd3335d87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Louis Wesselsof Matthew William Donald, Louis Wessels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Matthew William Donald | 75c | 5,759$4,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,332.16 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Louis Wessels | 9c | 2,496$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,263.69 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…2f1ebacked Louis Wessels | 30c | 1,055$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.61 | 1,111 | 45.3%503 W · 608 L | -35.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Louis Wessels | 67c | 896.07$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.84 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…b6a4backed Matthew William Donald | 60c | 833.33$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x940c…6f91backed Louis Wessels | 16c | 606.88$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.78 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Louis Wessels | 30c | 498.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.95 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Louis Wessels | 11c | 456.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.28 | 1,106 | 50.3%556 W · 550 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c38…1bfabacked Matthew William Donald | 67c | 450.4$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…7833backed Louis Wessels | 11c | 356.17$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.62 | 151 | 15.9%24 W · 127 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Louis Wessels | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.5 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…30fcbacked Louis Wessels | 44c | 308.73$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.89 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Louis Wessels | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.16 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Louis Wessels | 18c | 251.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.91 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3b…9035backed Louis Wessels | 15c | 228.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.97 | 307 | 55%169 W · 138 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…986cbacked Louis Wessels | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 636 | 48%305 W · 331 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Louis Wessels | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Louis Wessels | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 490 | 56.9%279 W · 211 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Matthew William Donald | 11c | 178.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 447 | 29.3%131 W · 316 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef6…c784backed Louis Wessels | 25c | 166.04$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.02 | 176 | 43.8%77 W · 99 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Matthew William Donald | 58c | 138.91$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.07 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Louis Wessels | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd82…6a10backed Louis Wessels | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 285 | 57.9%165 W · 120 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Louis Wessels | 17c | 117.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.94 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d5…573bbacked Louis Wessels | 31c | 116.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.13 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Louis Wessels | 18c | 110.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.76 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6b…ec86backed Louis Wessels | 18c | 110.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.76 | 1,062 | 31.8%338 W · 724 L | -27.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Matthew William Donald | 53c | 106$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefbc…b344backed Matthew William Donald | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 301 | 47.5%143 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aca…e738backed Matthew William Donald | 38c | 98.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 118 | 61%72 W · 46 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7544…e3aebacked Louis Wessels | 67c | 91.96$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 182 | 46.7%85 W · 97 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Louis Wessels | 72c | 89.77$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…4d49backed Matthew William Donald | 73c | 87.69$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.91 | 255 | 46.7%119 W · 136 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Louis Wessels | 17c | 86.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.45 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3443…64e9backed Louis Wessels | 73c | 79.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…caa6backed Louis Wessels | 23c | 78.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.26 | 267 | 48.7%130 W · 137 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Louis Wessels | 33c | 76.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.67 | 788 | 57.1%450 W · 338 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed Louis Wessels | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 563 | 37.3%210 W · 353 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Matthew William Donald | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 331 | 34.7%115 W · 216 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Louis Wessels | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1,624 | 49.8%809 W · 815 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed Matthew William Donald | 46c | 33.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 604 | 52.5%317 W · 287 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1367…9a3abacked Matthew William Donald | 58c | 32.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Matthew William Donald | 46c | 30.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 239 | 54.8%131 W · 108 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Matthew William Donald | 78c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 268 | 68.3%183 W · 85 L | +13.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Matthew William Donald | 69c | 16.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.