NHL · resolved market
Spread: Flames (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37d9e08e86580411a64bbe0928a0dc48ef1c6904d6c935b79c5bce5ba20a3781
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bruinsof Flames, Bruins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,475
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,475 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b9e…0262backed Bruins | 69c | 902.85$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.88 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Flames | 31c | 700$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Flames | 31c | 126.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Bruins | 68c | 110$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Flames | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bruins | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Bruins | 67c | 94$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Flames | 32c | 51.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Flames | 34c | 49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Flames | 31c | 48.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42bb…2138backed Flames | 32c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bruins | 68c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e02…8b73backed Bruins | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Bruins | 68c | 18.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Flames (-1.5)this page
- Bruins vs. FlamesFlames won
- Bruins vs. Flames: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.