Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Majchrzak vs Monfils
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38c95885a78e2a29ba917a67e6c20b158ad1d2ce4f8d61308c28146e0eed2801
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Monfilsof Majchrzak, Monfils
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Monfils | 27c | 726.51$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.35 | 390 | 46.4%181 W · 209 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Majchrzak | 11c | 440$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Majchrzak | 73c | 235.21$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.77 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb7…0acebacked Monfils | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 179 | 43.6%78 W · 101 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…c570backed Majchrzak | 11c | 150.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 678 | 38.3%260 W · 418 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Monfils | 29c | 140$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.4 | 868 | 35.4%307 W · 561 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a1…d1eebacked Majchrzak | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13c0…a298backed Majchrzak | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e9…80c7backed Majchrzak | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 183 | 43.7%80 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Monfils | 51c | 31.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf4…f76dbacked Majchrzak | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Majchrzak | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Majchrzak vs Monfilsthis page
- Canadian Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Gael MonfilsGael Monfils won
- Set 2 Winner: Majchrzak vs MonfilsMonfils won
- Set Handicap: Majchrzak (-1.5) vs Monfils (+1.5)Monfils won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.