TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Ducks vs. Lightning

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lightningof Ducks, Lightning
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,080
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,367

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,080 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x977a…f2cabacked Ducks9c6,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5401,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Ducks42c2,883$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.631334.8%109 W · 204 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Ducks25c2,713$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.2424546.1%113 W · 132 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b1a…bf3abacked Lightning75c1,322$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.411266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Lightning52c1,260$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.392848.5%450 W · 478 L+17.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Lightning61c1,195$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.83,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Lightning75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2501,03955.2%574 W · 465 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58b5…7340backed Ducks1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101031%1 W · 102 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef86…5afcbacked Ducks28c999.99$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2807648.7%37 W · 39 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6ab…b8b4backed Lightning56c999.99$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Lightning72c922.56$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.321,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ad…5176backed Ducks25c801.75$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.4429847%140 W · 158 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf65e…a55abacked Lightning67c794.81$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.343754.1%20 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed Ducks44c794.34$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.519747.4%46 W · 51 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Lightning73c601.19$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.3275155.8%419 W · 332 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…a821backed Lightning75c399.73$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.0811951.3%61 W · 58 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Ducks22c376.59$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.9591334.1%311 W · 602 L-27.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Lightning72c301.35$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.2972444.6%323 W · 401 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Lightning61c300$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11750857.7%293 W · 215 L+0.4wins0.00per pick58cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Lightning74c299.91$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.981,03755%570 W · 467 L-0.8wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Lightning72c263.32$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.631,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Ducks25c239.17$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.771,02540.8%418 W · 607 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c76…477abacked Ducks42c237.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10072448.3%350 W · 374 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdbf…c88ebacked Ducks44c229.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020540.5%83 W · 122 L+0.6wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19b8…9c8ebacked Ducks21c228.33$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4719438.1%74 W · 120 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcefa…bef8backed Lightning59c168.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.336953.6%37 W · 32 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90f6…b703backed Lightning77c150$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35af…4655backed Ducks43c140.44$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.392065%13 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+33%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd146…40c1backed Lightning72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.891947.4%9 W · 10 L-3.6wins-0.19per pick66cpaid-28.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf734…c613backed Ducks26c119.73$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.133729.7%11 W · 26 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-29.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Ducks17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2054418%98 W · 446 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Ducks27c117.16$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1184051.4%432 W · 408 L+19.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9544…f3fbbacked Ducks45c110.2$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015549.7%77 W · 78 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4b0…00e4backed Ducks47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904b…429cbacked Ducks26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2650049.4%247 W · 253 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3b7…520dbacked Ducks28c89.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2528542.1%120 W · 165 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf22d…e35dbacked Lightning73c85.4$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.661844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-31.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbe4c…b380backed Ducks27c80.41$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.71771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+37.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8bd4…8643backed Lightning75c80$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2018259.9%109 W · 73 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6295…fcecbacked Ducks28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick37cpaid+64.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6888…fe47backed Ducks28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+52.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x66e3…310ebacked Ducks28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x612a…3c9cbacked Ducks28c69.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.54944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73f8…b4bbbacked Ducks27c69.68$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7430%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b50…aaeabacked Lightning75c69.63$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.413100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+61.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x981a…112bbacked Lightning75c60.56$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.14757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x152f…cc4ebacked Lightning74c58.24$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.24250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2c0…e101backed Ducks27c57.37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.49333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x514f…5e60backed Ducks28c56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.68250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9d7…25e9backed Lightning53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.513846.4%64 W · 74 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc95…b4aebacked Lightning72c49.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141060%6 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac97…2204backed Ducks27c43.81$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbfd…f147backed Lightning75c43.15$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.97955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda4f…e43bbacked Lightning75c39.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.924852.1%25 W · 23 L-6.6wins-0.14per pick66cpaid-21.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1f8d…32b2backed Ducks26c39.62$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cf4…ed97backed Lightning74c33.78$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.781163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x975a…c5e3backed Lightning74c32.16$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x142a…ef93backed Lightning74c31.28$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.132100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+73.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb629…407abacked Lightning73c30.13$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.243100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+58.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2474…4957backed Lightning75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.56168.9%42 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8175…e4b8backed Lightning75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.51850%9 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fc1…caf3backed Lightning73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x535b…2056backed Lightning73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.243100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+58.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08a9…86a8backed Lightning73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+43.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x099b…217dbacked Lightning73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec9f…2338backed Lightning74c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.83100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+66%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c8d…6bdfbacked Lightning73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-54.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x720b…b405backed Lightning74c29.35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.63366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8047…cfe5backed Lightning72c28.31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.87250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6aba…aa11backed Lightning73c28.1$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.67333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick66cpaid-54.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd3c…7371backed Lightning71c28.06$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.061656.3%9 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick66cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4177…16a4backed Lightning73c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.56250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a94…4a06backed Lightning73c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.56250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1864…63c5backed Lightning73c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23a2…cac0backed Lightning73c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.56250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3c0…7fc0backed Lightning73c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.56366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47a4…074cbacked Lightning72c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.84366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Lightning74c27.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0712369.9%86 W · 37 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8e8…2eeabacked Lightning73c27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.22425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick65cpaid-65.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9aa7…c60abacked Lightning73c27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.29366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20c7…435bbacked Lightning73c25.23$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.81850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5eb5…2664backed Lightning74c22.56$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.86425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-66.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16d5…4ca7backed Lightning77c22.08$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.08560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa5…f8efbacked Lightning73c22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.94560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+24.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb89…62d0backed Lightning75c21.89$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.47887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick52cpaid+86.1%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xf147…6553backed Lightning75c20.79$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d76…af69backed Lightning74c20.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.271258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d61…1144backed Lightning74c18.75$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.87666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d08…2b37backed Lightning74c17.39$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.52540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0eed…b654backed Lightning74c16.75$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0d3…6895backed Lightning74c16.75$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ad2…0315backed Lightning74c16.22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.22825%2 W · 6 L-3.2wins-0.40per pick65cpaid-65%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x08f0…832cbacked Lightning75c16.17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.04633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-51.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf17…cc23backed Lightning72c15.83$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.433100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+65.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd529…7266backed Lightning75c15.03$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.76616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.41per pick57cpaid-77.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb9bb…547fbacked Lightning74c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.9475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+30.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa32e…8084backed Lightning74c14.77$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5d…7a76backed Lightning74c13.93$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.62683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+41%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.