Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Maja Chwalinska vs Anhelina Kalinina
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39c92ab608587d7edc06c3428ce6f803e663b61aadc4bab430b2b2844e27ef3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kalininaof Chwalinska, Kalinina
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Chwalinska | 27c | 1,245$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.45 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kalinina | 80c | 1,059$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.26 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Chwalinska | 16c | 906.29$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.73 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Kalinina | 59c | 768.26$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.49 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kalinina | 72c | 764.05$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.08 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Chwalinska | 33c | 399.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 430 | 42.8%184 W · 246 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…3c66backed Chwalinska | 33c | 249.17$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.92 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Chwalinska | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 140 | 28.6%40 W · 100 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Kalinina | 68c | 190.79$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 307 | 50.5%155 W · 152 L | -7.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Kalinina | 62c | 156.79$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6a…86bbbacked Kalinina | 78c | 120.28$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Chwalinska | 33c | 86.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…c468backed Chwalinska | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Chwalinska | 33c | 51.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Chwalinska | 34c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df0…96a6backed Chwalinska | 51c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5163…9a4fbacked Kalinina | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Chwalinska | 36c | 29.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…1420backed Kalinina | 63c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 222 | 58.1%129 W · 93 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x669e…035bbacked Kalinina | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 101 | 86.1%87 W · 14 L | +14.1wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Kalinina | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Maja Chwalinska vs Anhelina Kalininathis page
- Chwalinska vs. Kalinina: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Chwalinska vs KalininaChwalinska won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.