Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Zero Tenacity - Game 4 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a45a42961bf544b7da441cac7fd9c756c40907cc791185a7b575778125606b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Lynxof Team Lynx, Zero Tenacity
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26f8…3452backed Zero Tenacity | 54c | 5,238$2,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,828.5 | 154 | 57.1%88 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Lynx | 47c | 4,688$2,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,475.99 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked Team Lynx | 50c | 2,749$1,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,381.84 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Zero Tenacity | 55c | 1,684$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.07 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Zero Tenacity | 51c | 1,141$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Zero Tenacity | 43c | 885.34$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.68 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ca…87d1backed Team Lynx | 46c | 869.54$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.75 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -15.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Lynx | 46c | 751.05$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.55 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Zero Tenacity | 35c | 548$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.91 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4c…935ebacked Team Lynx | 51c | 542$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.12 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -6.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee3…7c36backed Team Lynx | 77c | 472.56$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.03 | 241 | 31.5%76 W · 165 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…2fe4backed Zero Tenacity | 45c | 450$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Team Lynx | 46c | 399.22$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.98 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Team Lynx | 51c | 393.1$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.1 | 189 | 54%102 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Lynx | 52c | 325.08$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.83 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ec…7307backed Team Lynx | 76c | 261.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.55 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed Zero Tenacity | 48c | 207.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Zero Tenacity | 39c | 155.28$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.62 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb110…21eabacked Team Lynx | 73c | 152.39$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Zero Tenacity | 19c | 115.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Zero Tenacity | 57c | 110.6$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…263cbacked Zero Tenacity | 19c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 241 | 37.3%90 W · 151 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a84…e21abacked Team Lynx | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Team Lynx | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Team Lynx | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.89 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Zero Tenacity | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…7e30backed Team Lynx | 79c | 89.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Zero Tenacity | 48c | 81.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Zero Tenacity | 24c | 76.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked Team Lynx | 46c | 61.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…be6bbacked Zero Tenacity | 51c | 33.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Team Lynx | 46c | 32.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Team Lynx | 46c | 32.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…5b93backed Team Lynx | 74c | 28.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x458d…8a59backed Zero Tenacity | 40c | 25.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1019…244abacked Team Lynx | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Zero Tenacity | 51c | 23.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Team Lynx | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Zero Tenacity | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Zero Tenacity - Game 4 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Zero Tenacity (BO5) - European Pro League PlayoffsZero Tenacity won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 WinnerZero Tenacity won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 WinnerZero Tenacity won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Zero Tenacity - Game 3 WinnerTeam Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.