MLB · resolved market
Astros vs. Royals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a5676682795a66a7b6fcc761230852da7c086d15918c2c00b70ff80073d3101
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Royalsof Astros, Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21ed…16f3backed Astros | 58c | 10,000$5,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,799.56 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Royals | 42c | 9,052$3,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,229.57 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Astros | 57c | 5,289$3,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,014.99 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked Royals | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Royals | 43c | 1,600$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.92 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Royals | 58c | 1,163$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.96 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Royals | 42c | 1,161$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.53 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Royals | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.52 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Astros | 42c | 900$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Royals | 44c | 747$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.32 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Astros | 37c | 708.75$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.24 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Royals | 62c | 628.56$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.37 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Royals | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.78 | 920 | 50%460 W · 460 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Astros | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Royals | 44c | 272$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.32 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Royals | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Royals | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Astros | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Astros | 42c | 54.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Royals | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Astros | 56c | 49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 406 | 29.1%118 W · 288 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Royals | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x630a…05f2backed Royals | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.