Champions League · resolved market
MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda: Draw at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a5dd7417ab7080d0815acbe353486f155483a8ebf641d6f03e7bb23492f3dbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,327
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,327 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 16c | 3,099$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,593.88 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Yes | 1c | 2,427$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3761…203cbacked Yes | 56c | 1,250$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed No | 4c | 1,061$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.2 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +5.6wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +145.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb763…4a90backed No | 4c | 1,061$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +591.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…700fbacked No | 4c | 350$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +388.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 48c | 317.78$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.94 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2d…2be7backed No | 5c | 300$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +153.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2c…b275backed No | 4c | 266$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0af…bfd0backed No | 8c | 150$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 44c | 130.17$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.92 | 723 | 35.5%257 W · 466 L | -28.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 46c | 90.61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 230 | 31.7%73 W · 157 L | -18.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 47c | 71.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 41c | 31.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…6dc8backed No | 63c | 21.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x975c…6343backed No | 58c | 21.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3756…b936backed No | 58c | 21.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfe…d954backed No | 58c | 21.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97b6…6e98backed No | 58c | 21.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +129.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs. FK Crvena zvezda: Draw at halftime?this page
- FK Crvena zvezda leading at halftime?No won
- MH Hapoel Be'er Sheva leading at halftime?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.