MLB · resolved market
First Round Pool D: Dominican Rep. vs. Netherlands
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a893b0571d61adf6afc8c25e3127d5212981a32695f207b218e797bb4e3efb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dominican Rep.of Dominican Rep., Netherlands
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,715 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x781c…db68backed Netherlands | 5c | 3,130$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.24 | 961 | 33.9%326 W · 635 L | -38.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Netherlands | 1c | 2,774$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Netherlands | 5c | 2,131$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.57 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Netherlands | 6c | 1,408$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.18 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Netherlands | 6c | 1,108$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Netherlands | 7c | 1,100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Netherlands | 6c | 801.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7071…8352backed Netherlands | 7c | 652.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Netherlands | 5c | 597.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c9…0084backed Netherlands | 8c | 592.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Netherlands | 4c | 522.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Netherlands | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…7f84backed Netherlands | 3c | 485.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9b…5f5abacked Netherlands | 6c | 449.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Netherlands | 11c | 401.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea51…83a0backed Netherlands | 5c | 327.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…5943backed Netherlands | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…387ebacked Netherlands | 5c | 205.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.39per pick | 48cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5356…8429backed Netherlands | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ca…e87abacked Netherlands | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.