Premier League · resolved market
FA Cup: Stoke City vs. Cardiff City (To Advance)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a93d764740fcbf0e53b89c5810bce5c91b3d7076155e81e92fac67a8d06e8fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cardiffof Stoke, Cardiff
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Stoke | 69c | 15,294$10,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,492.51 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Cardiff | 30c | 3,582$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,492.17 | 283 | 55.5%157 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcf…48e1backed Cardiff | 16c | 2,409$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,023.61 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +8.6wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Stoke | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 346 | 43.9%152 W · 194 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Cardiff | 55c | 666$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.7 | 253 | 39.1%99 W · 154 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Cardiff | 16c | 250$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 91 | 11%10 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Stoke | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 296 | 53%157 W · 139 L | -23.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Cardiff | 35c | 125$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…d577backed Stoke | 62c | 83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Stoke | 65c | 80$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 427 | 55%235 W · 192 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…37eabacked Cardiff | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0e…b1febacked Stoke | 62c | 54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…ff41backed Cardiff | 38c | 54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x377b…84b5backed Cardiff | 38c | 48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…625cbacked Stoke | 62c | 48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ba…8ae2backed Stoke | 62c | 48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3e…8b7abacked Stoke | 62c | 48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bf…1dd6backed Stoke | 62c | 46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44bb…b761backed Stoke | 62c | 46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b3…a9a7backed Cardiff | 38c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0df6…8dcbbacked Stoke | 62c | 44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9972…0339backed Cardiff | 38c | 44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x979e…8ed7backed Cardiff | 38c | 43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f75…9fdbbacked Cardiff | 38c | 41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f9…58efbacked Cardiff | 38c | 38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c88…16f3backed Cardiff | 38c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…53fcbacked Stoke | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4100…8ec3backed Cardiff | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25a5…a807backed Cardiff | 38c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a5…6638backed Stoke | 62c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd577…722bbacked Stoke | 62c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.