Tennis · resolved market
Pan Pacific Open: Cristina Bucsa vs McCartney Kessler
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a9aca0ee54821870dc9afe11d5b16292bb9c616a50fc457555e020c44e7a3ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kesslerof Bucsa, Kessler
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Bucsa | 36c | 2,326$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.48 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283d…0dadbacked Kessler | 40c | 1,242$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.33 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 59cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Bucsa | 1c | 1,099$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Bucsa | 57c | 999.73$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.67 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Bucsa | 62c | 885.49$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.39 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Kessler | 36c | 755.3$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487 | 191 | 31.4%60 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Kessler | 43c | 700$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402 | 401 | 41.9%168 W · 233 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Bucsa | 65c | 674.16$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.54 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Bucsa | 53c | 308.5$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.65 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Bucsa | 55c | 302$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.19 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Kessler | 30c | 300$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Kessler | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Kessler | 38c | 252.81$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.82 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Kessler | 72c | 180$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Kessler | 48c | 158.96$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.42 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Kessler | 40c | 150.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.23 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Kessler | 65c | 144.94$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Kessler | 62c | 65.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kessler | 60c | 39.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…333bbacked Kessler | 49c | 27.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Bucsa | 74c | 25.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Kessler | 43c | 24.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.