Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3aa302dbe3efd9180349e6dd2627ed3c20f9cf97966101bc2f732dcf72f298f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 19c | 521.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.36 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef90…da0ebacked No | 38c | 390$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +116%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa865…a2c3backed No | 64c | 390$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 299.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a91…9e12backed Yes | 37c | 270$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0713…a21bbacked Yes | 36c | 240$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb22e…e35fbacked Yes | 62c | 220$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…51f3backed No | 54c | 170$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e4…d007backed No | 63c | 160$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b03…6334backed Yes | 36c | 155$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0641…1985backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55d9…1c99backed Yes | 46c | 145$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 58c | 138.16$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e2…5e5ebacked Yes | 30c | 130$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…87a2backed Yes | 46c | 130$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…a6c3backed No | 63c | 120$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…87ccbacked Yes | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…0e08backed No | 57c | 115$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb2…2ea9backed No | 57c | 115$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48dd…1391backed No | 54c | 110$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9a…3124backed No | 54c | 110$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa45…c229backed Yes | 62c | 110$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…959abacked Yes | 43c | 105$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa112…d215backed Yes | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e81…0dc3backed No | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c7…c132backed No | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 55c | 85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3998…5fdcbacked Yes | 37c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b36…9cbcbacked Yes | 62c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…2dc1backed Yes | 62c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd591…7156backed Yes | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 44c | 68.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3b…9d46backed No | 57c | 65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8660…fad0backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f1…5cc9backed Yes | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…44a9backed No | 63c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8084…5bfabacked No | 57c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb962…6985backed No | 57c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3197…d75abacked Yes | 37c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf654…1fbbbacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b58…44aebacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ec…6491backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa06a…2aa7backed No | 57c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 49cpaid | +112.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb160…812bbacked Yes | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e23…ac50backed Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9626…3cdabacked Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bae…d5e8backed Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b6…5bcebacked Yes | 60c | 42.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cfe…b99fbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1e…6623backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf50…fa70backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…fb46backed No | 56c | 39.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 30c | 39.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 60c | 36.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbef…ca7ebacked Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…602dbacked Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aaa…62dbbacked Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5b…35e8backed No | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe307…1310backed No | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…0c27backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e9…94e7backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +156.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34a…8251backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9168…4c2cbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…cb9cbacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 59c | 21.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ff…835dbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6947…51e2backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 64°F or higher on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on March 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.