Tennis · resolved market
ITF M15 Mistelbach Men: Gabriele Maria Noce vs Thilo Behrmann
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ac616a665d026e58c45e1fd425260493f57f3245d6d2c8701a56c6933f66f46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thilo Behrmannof Gabriele Maria Noce, Thilo Behrmann
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5929…4684backed Gabriele Maria Noce | 18c | 1,010$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.82 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…3f3fbacked Gabriele Maria Noce | 2c | 566.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 853 | 48.9%417 W · 436 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…c501backed Gabriele Maria Noce | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Thilo Behrmann | 74c | 194.88$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc5…5fdebacked Gabriele Maria Noce | 27c | 187.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 243 | 44%107 W · 136 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf9…8292backed Gabriele Maria Noce | 26c | 181.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 588 | 57.7%339 W · 249 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Thilo Behrmann | 79c | 109.14$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Thilo Behrmann | 74c | 79.28$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d0…681ebacked Thilo Behrmann | 70c | 65.52$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab63…29bdbacked Thilo Behrmann | 76c | 56.58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a31…ddc0backed Gabriele Maria Noce | 27c | 55.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b2…5486backed Thilo Behrmann | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 87 | 77%67 W · 20 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa678…dd59backed Thilo Behrmann | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 108 | 55.6%60 W · 48 L | -7.3wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Thilo Behrmann | 69c | 20.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Thilo Behrmann | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 221 | 52.9%117 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ITF M15 Mistelbach Men: Gabriele Maria Noce vs Thilo Behrmannthis page
- ITF M15 Mistelbach Men: Completed Match: Gabriele Maria Noce vs Thilo BehrmannYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.