Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
UMBC Retrievers vs. Bucknell Bison
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3afa3e077890a2b66a9bb4a359c836459c624669af39e48807fb0d18a845d61e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UMBC Retrieversof UMBC Retrievers, Bucknell Bison
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed UMBC Retrievers | 33c | 14,167$4,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,548.56 | 354 | 52.3%185 W · 169 L | +17.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Bucknell Bison | 35c | 12,529$4,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,384.98 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bucknell Bison | 36c | 539.55$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.56 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked UMBC Retrievers | 42c | 287.85$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.95 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Bucknell Bison | 58c | 279.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.4 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Bucknell Bison | 36c | 174.49$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 231 | 58.9%136 W · 95 L | +23.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Bucknell Bison | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed UMBC Retrievers | 52c | 42.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36e9…9c03backed Bucknell Bison | 24c | 41.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Bucknell Bison | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e95…2bb7backed UMBC Retrievers | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.